Is the Government Shutdown Really a “Win” for Democrats, Harmful for Republicans?

Articles in the National Journal, the Washington Examiner, and a poll released by Heritage Action in August all tell us something similar: Republicans will likely maintain their majority in the House of Representatives in the next election cycle.   Current polling data, some quality political analysis, and a look at the last government shutdown all help lead to that conclusion.

It’s safe to say President Obama and Senate Democrats were banking on America blaming Republicans for a government shutdown and consequently taking a hit in the next election cycle.  It appears their calculus was off by rather a lot, according to the National Journal:

A recent Bloomberg survey found that 40 percent blame the GOP for what’s wrong in Washington, while 38 percent blame the president and congressional Democrats. Back in February, Obama had a nine-point edge over Republicans and independents were evenly divided over who was responsible. Now, 42 percent of independents fault with Obama and his allies in Congress, while 34 percent blame Republicans on Capitol Hill.

The latest CNN poll found a similar trend, with the percentage who blame congressional Republicans for a government shutdown down five points and the percent who blame Obama up three points.

It’s beyond reason how the Left thinks it’s Republican’s fault that the government shut down, when Republicans passed several bills to fund the government but give Americans the same break from Obamacare being given to Mr. Obama’s cronies — especially when most Americans oppose Obamacare. 

But there’s more evidence apart from just polling that it’s not Republicans who are going to take the political hit from the government shutdown.

According to new information from an “authoritative and reliable political team at the University of Virginia, headed by Larry Sabato” there is little chance Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives.  Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s top House analyst, said, “We continue to believe that the Republicans are strongly favored to hold control of the House.”

Larry Sabato and his team looked at the current composition of the House and which seats in particular are up for grabs this election cycle.  There just aren’t many GOP House seats up for grabs this cycle, and those that are up for grabs are mostly moderate Republicans in districts where President Obama won or did well last year.

It’s reasonable to project Republican success in the next election.

But what about the 1995 – 96 government shutdown, when Republicans bore most of the blame?  Isn’t that evidence that Republicans will suffer losses in the House this year?  Actually, Senate Republicans picked up two seats, and the House maintained their majority while only losing nine seats.  Even the reelection of President Clinton over his Republican opponent was to be expected given the economy at the time.

The big takeaway is that many polls are backing what Heritage Action predicted in August with the poll released by Heritage Action CEO Michael A. Needham and leading pollster John Lerner.  Lerner explained:

There is no present evidence that a move to de-fund Obamacare, and the potential of a partial government shutdown, would harm Republican prospects of holding the House majority.  In fact, the very same voters who are critical to keeping the majority – Independents in potentially competitive districts – hold highly negative views on Obamacare and strongly favor a slow down in implementation or outright repeal of the law.

Unfortunately for Americans suffering from President Obama and Sen. Harry Reid’s government shutdown, and the President’s failed health care law, the Left just doesn’t get the picture.  The Wall Street Journal just reported (sub. req’d):

Said a senior administration official: “We are winning…It doesn’t really matter to us” how long the shutdown lasts “because what matters is the end result.”

Fortunately for Americans, it’s just not clear this official is correct that the White House is “winning.”  But they certainly are making America suffer, from living under the shadow of Obamacare, to the ailing economy, to the government shutdown.

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10 thoughts on “Is the Government Shutdown Really a “Win” for Democrats, Harmful for Republicans?

  1. Defunding ObamaCare and the Federal Gov;t shutdown.

    The idea that Republicans in Congress should not defund OCare because their political opponents will not negotiate and force the Gov’t shutdown, with the Republicans blamed among voters, is wrong and counterproductive.

    The public is influenced by the dishonest and biased media. The energy and effort put into the descension criticizing and opposing Heritage, Cruz, and compatriots would have been much better used in educating the public. Even if united Republicans were not immediately fully successful, it would have been a much better step in the right direction for the country.

    The Goldwater ‘revolution’ was not immediately successful either.Ultimately It certainly proved to be the right thing to do!- pun intended!
    Dwight Broadstone

    • Read the NY Times article on how this crisis was preplanned and the government shutdown was part of the agenda of billionaires like the Koch Brothers.

      You’re not having a revolution. This is not being directed by the people but by the money. You’re being manipulated by these group of billionaires who’ve convinced you that making sure Americans don’t get insurance and not get their treatment for cancer & other diseases is somehow a good thing. Do you really imagine that the United States is so weak that having more of its citizens get healthcare will make it fall apart? Ridiculous.

      Also today polls show the Republicans are in danger of losing the house due to this shutdown. You’ve tarnished the Republican brand with this tactic. Your Canadian Cuban communist Ted Cruz is a joke and will be a symbol of what’s wrong with the Tea Party.

      • Its Ok to spend Trillions and Trillions of tax payer money on these useless previous wars. We give even more money to other countries that hate us. Yet , we have politicians in our own country bascily telling the uninsured Americans to go screw your selves . And if that’s not enough they are hijacking the country and letting our Vets do the same. Affordable care act – was passed , it time we help our fellow Americans now. Stop funding other countries, stop meddling in their affairs – Screw them not us !

  2. Katherine, you are doing your best to avoid the obvious, but consider which red states are already ahead of the pack:
    Kentucky GOP Gov. Steve Beshear is leading the charge to implement Obamacare since one in six people in Kentucky have no health insurance.  His op/ed on “My State Needs Obamacare” in the NYTimes on September 26, 2013 tells it all.

    What other Republican Governors are following his lead?  Republican governors Jan Brewer of AZ, John Kasich of OH and Rick Snyder of Michigan all see the ACA as a tool for historic change.

    Beshear’s state of Kentucky leads the nation in worst health in almost every category from smoking to cancer deaths, preventable hospitalizations, premature death, heart disease and diabetes.    His point is that the ACA will be transformational in improving heath care for all Americans.  And it will, despite the narcissistic rants by Ron Paul and Ted Cruz.

    • Very well put Elucidated1 -Kudos! I don’t understand with health care spiraling out of control ,which we will pay for it with higher premiums, we should at least give the “Affordable health care act” a chance! Wasn’t the Affordable care act originally conceptualized by a Republican ? So why all the drama ?

      • I think your post is a perfect understatement for what is going on. But if one follows the conservative blogs like townhall, heritage, fox, etc. . .or twitter feeds. . .it is pretty easy to tell that if the ACA works. . and it will. . .that the Republicans are going to look silly and out of touch in 2016.
        And with hate blogs and the “stop Hillary now”. .. groups already forming. . it’s pretty easy to figure out the steep climb the GOP has from the deep hole they’ve dug.
        Did you notice that Hannity got dumped from his prime time spot on Fox and was replaced by Megyn Kelly? And her first two shows had discussions on sex of all things.
        Fox is making a concerted efforts to gain more female voters to the GOP. . and trying to change their format. Is it going to work? Of course not. . ! Hillary is going to blow them all way in the swing states like OH, PA, NV, CO, VA, WI, FL.

        • The only people the ACA is working for is poor people who get subsidies for their crap restaurant worker insurance and pre existing conditions. The rest of us with decent plans who wanted to keep them now have to subsidize that crap. Sorry, but helping a few million Americans is not worth the price that the rest of us have to pay extra.

          You are acting as if forcing young, healthy people to subsidize the care of people with rotten bodies is okay and moral. IT IS NOT. IT IS TYRANNY. CHARITY IS VOLUNTARY NOT A COERCIVE FUNCTION OF GOVERNMENT. GET IT??? It stops being charity and becomes a burden at that point. Stop burdening people with your incessant social service demands!

          • 1. For the last decade, both parties have said the number one risk to our economy is rising health care costs. In fact during the Bush admin. Republicans lamented that so many Americans are not paying their fair share for health care and the rest of us are paying an extra $1000 a year in premiums to cover them.
            2. You said “helping a FEW million people is not worth the price?” Are you kidding? Try 30 million people. Or is all of this JUST about you and only you? Hmm
            3. “bosses who dump health ins. for THEIR employees are going to be exposed one by one across America and look stupid.
            4. Your lack of compassion for others, South, is suspect and makes you look like just another angry right winger. .hating it that we have a black president, and desperate to keep the world as it once was instead of how it is going to be.

          • Lastly, we have a son with seizures who was denied health insurance last year. Do you have any idea what it is like to deal with serious health issues with no insurance since “current law” prevents us from converage?
            We cannot wait for january to come. We will be saving over $600 a MONTH. But I guess no one in the Republican party givesas hit about anyone in our situation. . .as is obvious.

  3. You crazy motherfuckers are destroying America with your grade school educations and blind bible following. The masses will credit you idiots with the end of the republican party

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