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Is Senate’s Amnesty Bill on Deathbed?

I wanted to make sure you saw this article from National Journal: Rubio’s Right.  The Gang Is Far From a Supermajority on Immigration.  The skepticism mirrors that of outlets like BuzzFeed, which described the bill’s coalition as “fragile.”  In that same article, a Republican supporter discussed the bill’s “tenuous balance.”

More from National Journal’s Chris Frates:

Chuck Schumer is predicting the Senate will overwhelmingly pass comprehensive immigration reform before July 4. Marco Rubio says the bill doesn’t even have the 60 votes it needs to pass.

And as of today, Rubio’s right.

Granted, the Senate overwhelmingly voted Tuesday to begin debating the Gang of Eight’s immigration overhaul – 84-15. But that was expected, and it’s just the start. There is nowhere near as much agreement on the reform bill itself.

Sen. Schumer’s rosy predictions assume that all the hurdles will work themselves out over the next few weeks of debate—and that’s a big bet, given the magnitude of the divide that has emerged not only between Democrats and Republicans, but inside the gang as well, particularly on border control. 

[…]

But without [Sen. John] Cornyn’s proposal—or another Republican-friendly border-security alternative—added to the bill, Reid and Schumer will fail to get 60, much less 70.

Passage in the Senate is no sure thing, but according to Frates, the one amendment that could make a pathway to amnesty a reality is a Cornyn-style border security amendment.  Conservatives should being doing everything possible to derail the Gang of Eight’s amnesty bill, not create incentives for their colleagues to embrace amnesty.

 

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